Obama Leads Top GOP Contenders for 2012 in New Poll; Palin is Weakest Opponent; Romney Tops 2012 GOP Field

August 25, 2009

WASHINGTON, Aug. 25 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new nationwide poll of American voters shows President Obama leading major 2012 Republican presidential contenders. The survey, conducted by Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan research firm based in Washington, D.C., shows Obama leading GOP challengers by margins ranging from 9 to 19 points.

In the poll, Obama led:

    --  Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, by nine points: 47
        percent to 38 percent, with 15 percent undecided.
    --  Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, by 10 points: 48 percent to
        38 percent, with 15 percent undecided.
    --  Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House, by 18 points: 52 percent to
        34 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

    --  Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska, by 19 points: 53 percent to 34
        percent, with 13 percent undecided.

"The fact that Obama falls below 50 percent against two possible Republican opponents should be troubling for him," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus Research Group. "It also shows that the electorate is increasingly divided on Obama, with significant partisan polarization." The president's standing among swing voters has eroded since November, 2008, when exit polling showed he defeated John McCain 52 percent to 44 percent among independents.

According to the new Clarus poll, among independent voters Romney beats Obama by two points, 42 percent to 40 percent, and Huckabee beats the president by one point, 41 percent to 40 percent. Obama tops Gingrich among independents, 46 percent to 38 percent, and does best against Sarah Palin. Obama leads her by 19 points among all voters and beats her among independents by 15 points, 49 percent to 34 percent.

The Clarus poll also found Romney leading other possibilities for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination among Republicans and independents who lean Republican. Romney captured 30 percent of their support for the nomination, followed by Huckabee with 22 percent, Palin 19 percent, Gingrich 15 percent, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal 4 percent. Two percent of the sample volunteered someone else and 10 percent were undecided.

Obama continues to do well among his base constituencies: African Americans, voters younger than 30 and Democrats, according to the Clarus poll.

"The president has plenty of time to get back on a stronger footing before the next election, especially if there is sustained improvement in the economy. But for now, he's in a vulnerable position on big issues such as health care, government spending, and rising deficits," said Faucheux. "Independent voters, who played a decisive role in Obama's election, are increasingly worried about where he's taking the country. He needs to quickly reassure them."

"Even as the president's opposition energizes and GOP constituencies gain new confidence, Obama remains lucky that the Republicans have yet to rebuild their nationwide credibility among large segments of the electorate. The next 90 days are crucial for this presidency's future," concluded Faucheux.

Clarus conducted the nationwide survey August 14-18, 2009 with a sample of 1,003 registered voters in the U.S. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent. The poll was conducted via telephone by live interviewers.

Clarus Research Group is a full-service, nonpartisan, survey research firm based in Washington, D.C. that provides public opinion insights and analysis for corporate, association, nonprofit and advocacy clients. More information on Clarus can be found at www.ClarusRG.com.

    CONTACT: Ron Faucheux, president, Clarus Research Group
    Phone: 202-256-8036
    E-mail: Rfaucheux@ClarusRG.com

SOURCE Clarus Research Group